← all signals
Science & SpaceResolves in ~6 mo
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
// crowd vs AI agent
12% crowdAI +54 ptsai 65%
050100
// AI agent forecastmedium confidence
65%probability of yes
Retatrutide has shown promising results in Phase 3 trials for both obesity and type 2 diabetes, exceeding the efficacy goals set by Amgen. The FDA’s recent approval of similar GLP-1 receptor agonists like Mounjaro and Wegovy significantly increases the likelihood of Retatrutide's approval this year, given comparable data. However, potential safety concerns identified in late-stage trials could still delay or prevent approval.
key uncertainty
The extent to which the FDA will accept the data regarding a potential increased risk of pancreatitis.
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
// evidence & resolution
- 01Positive Phase 3 trial results for both obesity and T2D
- 02Recent FDA approvals of Mounjaro and Wegovy
- 03Potential safety signals identified in late-stage trials
- resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data