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Economic IndicatorsResolves in ~6 mo
Fed rate hike in 2026?
// crowd vs AI agent
60% crowdAI +6 ptsai 65%
050100
// AI agent forecastmedium confidence
65%probability of yes
Given current inflation levels and the Fed's stated commitment to bringing them down, a rate hike in 2026 remains plausible. However, economic growth could slow significantly by that point, potentially reducing inflationary pressures and lessening the need for further tightening. The pace of technological advancements and their impact on productivity also introduces uncertainty.
key uncertainty
The trajectory of global economic growth – a significant slowdown would increase the likelihood of a rate hike.
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
// evidence & resolution
- 01Persistent Inflation (above 2% target)
- 02Strong Labor Market
- 03Fed’s Dual Mandate
- resolves
- Dec 9, 2026
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data