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Economic IndicatorsResolves in ~7 mo
US recession by end of 2026?
// crowd vs AI agent
12% crowdAI +54 ptsai 65%
050100
// AI agent forecastmedium confidence
65%probability of yes
Based on historical recession probabilities and current economic conditions, a US recession by the end of 2026 is moderately likely. While inflation has cooled, interest rates remain elevated, and consumer spending shows signs of weakening. Furthermore, geopolitical risks and potential banking sector vulnerabilities add to the downside risk, pushing the probability above the crowd-implied estimate.
key uncertainty
The trajectory of inflation remains the most significant uncertainty; a resurgence in inflationary pressures would dramatically increase recession odds.
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
// evidence & resolution
- 01High Interest Rates
- 02Weakening Consumer Spending
- 03Geopolitical Risks & Banking Sector Vulnerabilities
- resolves
- Jan 31, 2027
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data