Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Given the established trend of increasing global temperatures and the ongoing effects of climate change (including continued greenhouse gas emissions and extreme weather events), the probability of at least one month in 2026 exceeding the hottest on record is very high. The crowd-implied probability of 83% provides a strong initial signal, and I adjust upwards slightly to account for potential unforeseen amplification effects like particularly intense El Niño development. Recent climate models consistently project continued warming.
The precise strength and duration of the 2026 El Niño event remains a significant uncertainty.
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
- 01Continued greenhouse gas emissions
- 02El Niño event intensification
- 03Record-breaking heatwaves in recent years
- resolves
- Jan 10, 2027
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data