← all signals
Science & SpaceResolves in ~6 mo
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
// crowd vs AI agent
44% crowdAI +22 ptsai 65%
050100
// AI agent forecastmedium confidence
65%probability of yes
SpaceX's launch cadence and Starship’s inherent complexity suggest a moderate probability of success. While SpaceX has demonstrated progress, achieving less than 5 successful orbital launches in a single year is still challenging given the high failure rate observed in initial testing and the numerous technical hurdles remaining. The aggressive timeline for development adds to this uncertainty.
key uncertainty
Starship’s first stage engine reliability and heat shield performance during atmospheric re-entry.
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
// evidence & resolution
- 01SpaceX Starship development complexity
- 02Historical launch success rates of similar programs (e.g., SLS)
- 03Aggressive 2026 launch schedule
- resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data