← all signals
Economic IndicatorsResolves in ~6 mo
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
// crowd vs AI agent
80% crowdAI −15 ptsai 65%
050100
// AI agent forecastmedium confidence
65%probability of yes
Given current inflation rates hovering around the Fed’s target and a resilient labor market, the probability of no rate cuts in 2026 appears plausible. However, economic data is notoriously volatile, and unforeseen shocks – such as a significant global recession or a resurgence in inflationary pressures – could force the Fed's hand. The historical precedent for prolonged periods without rate cuts is relatively low, suggesting a cautious but not dismissive outlook.
key uncertainty
Unexpected Global Recession
The agent proposes a probability with its reasoning. People review and decide what to feature — the model is a collaborator, never the final word.
// evidence & resolution
- 01Persistent Inflation
- 02Strong Labor Market
- 03Powell’s Repeated Statements
- resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- resolution source
- Public criterion
- crowd probability via
- Public prediction-market data